Two analysts argued, with forecasts that have no methodology, over which side the market is taking. On 23 September 2026 the National Statistical Institute (НСИ) announced the official house price index for Q2 2026. We test it against the two forecasts.
Camp 1
Decline
◆VS
Camp 2
Stability
BulGhar Homes
Trusted Homes · Trusted Future
Raffy NikoghosyanAgent, BulGhar Homes
28 September 2026 · 9 min read
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What they are arguing about
On 23 September 2026 the NSI published the official house price index for Q2 2026: +15.5% a year for the country, an acceleration from +14.8% in Q1. At the same time the quarterly rate slowed from +6.2% to +4.5%. Deals keep falling. The two camps below, now aware of the new figure, look at exactly the same data from the Bulgarian National Bank (БНБ), the NSI and the property portals. And they still reach opposite forecasts.
Three growth rates, Q2 2026
Housing loans (July 2026)+25.7%
Home prices (NSI, Q2 2026)+15.5%
Average wage+12.7%
Home prices are rising only 2.8 points faster than wages, not by the double-digit chasm of a classic bubble.
Round 1
The arguments in front of the new figure.
Camp 1 · Bears
Decline
Max Baklayan, financial analyst
-20 to -25%
forecast fall in prices by 2029-2030, unchanged after Q2
25 → 75 days
the time to sell a property has tripled, by his claim, not confirmed by aggregated market data
Standart News separately forecasts a nominal fall of 20-30% between 2027 and 2029. Deals keep falling: Varna -16.7% year on year in Q2 2026, the country -17.9% year on year. But neither of the two figures is a reversal in the direction of prices.
Camp 2 · Bulls
Stability
The credit market and the National Real Estate Association (НАНИ)
+25.7%
growth in housing loans year on year, to about €19 billion (July 2026)
+15.5%
the official price growth, NSI, Q2 2026, against +12.7% growth in the average wage
33 days
average time to a deal in Varna according to the Zimoti portal, with no published methodology; Baklayan gives 75
Alexander Bochev (National Real Estate Association) expects prices in the big cities to keep rising by 5-7% until the end of 2026. The NSI Q2 figure is closer to his thesis than to the thesis of a fall.
The same institutions: the BNB, the NSI, the property portals. Opposite conclusions, even after the new figure.
Which side are you on?
Camp 1 · Decline0%
Camp 2 · Stability0%
0 votes
Round 2
Three questions the new figure does not answer on its own.
Tap a question to see what is behind it.
Annual growth is speeding up, quarterly growth is slowing down. How can both be true at once?
+
The annual rate (+15.5%) is measured against Q2 2025, so it carries all the momentum of the previous four quarters. The quarterly rate (+4.5%) is measured against Q1 2026 and is a more sensitive barometer of the current speed. The slowdown from +6.2% to +4.5% is a real signal: the market keeps getting more expensive, but more slowly than before. It is not a reversal in direction, it is a change in pace.
Existing homes are up 17.6%, new construction only 12.3%. Why the difference?
+
The NSI splits the index into existing homes and new construction, and for Q2 2026 the gap is 5.3 percentage points in favour of existing homes. New construction with Act 16 (Акт 16) reaches the market gradually and spreads the pressure more evenly, while the same limited pool of buyers who are ready to buy NOW competes for ready homes in a good location. With fewer deals (Varna -16.7%), demand shifts to the ready product, not the future one.
The BNB is financing loans at +25.7%, yet the BNB itself warns of 13.8% overvaluation. Which BNB should we believe?
+
Both numbers are real and come from the same institution. The BNB’s banking supervision monitors systemic risk: 13.8% overvaluation is its estimate against fundamentals such as incomes and rents, for Q3 2025, commented on in August 2026. The credit growth statistics record a fact: banks are granting housing loans because households are taking out loans and repaying on time. The supervision warns precisely because lending is growing so fast, not because the market has stalled.
Clash · Varna · NSI, Q2 2026
One figure. Two directions.
Deals, Q2 2026
0%
year on year, an improvement on -21.5% in Q1
Price index
0%
a year, +2.8% a quarter (it was +4.0%)
Fewer deals do not automatically mean lower prices. They mean more selective buyers, ready to pay for the right property, at a slower but still positive rate of growth.
Conclusion
The old is rising faster than the new.
The market remains segmented, and the NSI figure does not settle the argument one way or the other.
New construction
+12.3% year on year, slower
Existing homes
+17.6% year on year, faster
The next figure, Q3 2026, comes out on 23 December 2026. Until then the question stays the same: whether your property is overvalued.
Is your property overvalued?
In a segmented market like this one, speculation does not help. We make a concrete market valuation, without guesswork.
