Market debate · August 2026
Two analysts look at the same data.
They reach opposite conclusions.
One sees a market that will get 20-25% cheaper by 2029-2030. The other sees a market financed by growing loans and wages. Both cite the Bulgarian National Bank (БНБ) and the National Statistical Institute (НСИ).
Camp 1
Decline
◆
VS
Camp 2
Stability
BulGhar Homes
Trusted Homes · Trusted Future
What they disagree about
In August 2026 the property market in Bulgaria is giving two opposing signals at once. Deals are falling, but asking prices keep rising. Banks are granting more and more housing loans, while the banks’ own supervisor writes that homes are overvalued. The two camps below look at exactly the same data from the BNB, the NSI and the property portals. And they reach opposite forecasts.
Three growth rates, Q1 and June 2026
Housing loans+26.4%
Home prices (NSI, Q1 2026)+14.8%
Average salary+12.7%
The gap between the fastest and the slowest rate is under 14 points, not the double-digit chasm of a classic bubble.
Round 1
The arguments face to face.
Camp 1 · Bears
Decline
Max Baklayan, financial analyst
-20 to -25%
forecast fall in prices by 2029-2030
25 → 75 days
the time to sell a property has tripled, by his claim, not confirmed by aggregated market data
40% empty homes
1.6 million completely empty homes in Bulgaria, according to data quoted by Plovdiv24.bg
Standart News separately forecasts a nominal fall of 20-30% between 2027 and 2029. Deals in the country are already falling: -15.5% year on year in Q1 2026, -17.9% year on year in Q2 2026.
Camp 2 · Bulls
Stability
The credit market and the National Real Estate Association (НАНИ)
+26.4%
year-on-year growth in housing loans, to about €18.7 billion (June 2026)
+12.7%
year-on-year growth in the average salary, close to the 14.8% growth in home prices
33 days
average time to a deal in Varna according to the Zimoti portal, with no published methodology; Baklayan gives 75
Alexander Bochev (National Real Estate Association) expects prices in the big cities to keep rising by 5-7% until the end of 2026 while deals fall: “fewer but more expensive deals”. Ivo Dimovski: “the probability of a real fall in prices is minimal.”
The same institutions: the BNB, the NSI, the property portals. Opposite conclusions.
And which side are you on?
Camp 1 · Decline0%
Camp 2 · Stability0%
0 votes
Round 2
Four questions neither camp answers alone.
Tap a question to see what lies behind the contradiction.
Deals are down 20%. Prices are rising. How can both be true?
+
In Varna property deals fell by about 20% year on year, while prices kept rising at the same time. Both signals came out in one and the same report by eurocom.bg (2 August 2026). The explanation: fewer buyers remain in the market, but those who do buy are looking for quality properties and accept the higher price. Sellers of overpriced properties simply wait instead of cutting the price, so average asking prices do not fall even with lower volume.
The BNB is financing loans at +26.4%, yet the BNB itself warns of 13.8% overvaluation. Which BNB should we believe?
+
Both numbers are real and come from the same institution. The BNB’s banking supervision monitors systemic risk; 13.8% overvaluation is its estimate against fundamentals such as incomes and rents, for Q3 2025, commented on in August 2026. The credit growth statistics, for their part, simply record a fact: banks are granting housing loans on a large scale because households are taking out loans and repaying on time. The two functions of the BNB do not exclude each other; the supervision warns precisely because lending is growing so fast.
40% of homes in Bulgaria are empty. Why, then, are we not finding a “shortage of quality supply”?
+
Both claims are true, because they are about different properties. A large part of the 1.6 million empty homes are old buildings in small towns and villages, properties for which there is almost no demand at any price. The shortage is in another segment: new construction with Act 16 (Акт 16), a good location, a reasonable price. The oversupply is not a problem of quantity, it is a problem of the product in the wrong place, at the wrong price.
Wages are rising by 12.7%. Prices are rising by 14.8%. A bubble, or just a slightly faster market?
+
The gap between the two growth rates is 2.1 percentage points, far from the divergence that usually precedes a sharp correction. A classic bubble appears when prices outpace incomes by a double-digit margin for several consecutive years. Here incomes are almost catching up with prices. This does not rule out local overvaluation of particular properties, but it weakens the case for a market bubble at national level.
Clash · Varna · 2 August 2026
One report. Two signals.
Deals
0%
year on year, summer 2026
Prices / sq m
↑
keep rising, around €1,900-2,000
Fewer buyers do not automatically mean lower prices. They mean more selective buyers, ready to pay for the right property.
Conclusion
Not a boom. Not a crash.
The market is segmented.
Overpriced properties
Sit unsold for months
Quality, reasonably priced
Sell quickly
The real question is not whether the market will fall.
The question is whether your property is overpriced.
The question is whether your property is overpriced.
Is your property overpriced?
In a segmented market like this one, speculation does not help. We carry out a specific market valuation, without guesswork.
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